By Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger “Second Thought: a US-Israel Initiative”
Here’s how demography is fueling Israel’s future!
*The number of annual Jewish births in Israel surged by 74% from 1995 (80,400) to 2025 (139,676), compared to a 21% increase of annual Arab births in Israel during the same period (from 36,500 to 44,029), as reported by the February 2026 Monthly Bulletin of Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics (ICBS).
*The2025 Jewish births (139,676) were 76% of total births (183,705), compared to 69% in 1995.
*In 2024 (the latest data), the Jewish fertility rate (3.09 births per woman) is higher than the Muslim fertility rate (2.51). It is higher than the fertility rates in all Muslim countries other than Iraq, Yemen, and the sub-Saharan Muslim countries.
*In 1969, Israel’s and Judea and Samaria’s (West Bank’s) Arab fertility rate was 6 births higher than the Jewish fertility rate. In 2015, both fertility rates were at 3.13 births per woman, reflecting the dramatic Westernization of Arab demography in Judea and Samaria and pre-1967 Israel, triggered by Arab modernity, urbanization, the enhanced social status of Arab women, older wedding age (27), expanded participation of Arab women in higher-education and the job market, a shorter reproductive time (28-45 rather than 16-55) and the increased use of contraceptives. Since 2015, Jewish fertility rate has been higher than the Arab fertility rate (which includes Muslims, Christians, Druze and Circassians) and in recent years higher than the Muslim fertility rate.
*In 2025, there were 44,127 Israeli Jewish deaths, compared to 31,575 in 1996, a mere 40% increase, (while the size of the population almost doubled!), which reflects a society growing younger. In 2025, there were 6,784 Israeli Arab deaths, compared to 3,089 in 1996, a 120%% increase, which reflects a society growing older.
*Israel’s robust Jewish fertility rate is attributed to the high-level of optimism, patriotism, attachment to Jewish roots, frontier mentality, communal solidarity, high regard for raising children, and a declining number of abortions (34% decline since 1990, while abortion policy is liberal).
*In 2026, there is a potential wave of Aliyah (Jewish immigration) of some 500,000 Olim (Jewish immigrants) from the Ukraine, Russia, other former Soviet republics, West Europe, Argentina, the USA and Australia, requiring the upgrading of Aliyah in Israel’s national order of priorities (as it was until 1992, serving as the major engine of growth), and resuming a pro-active Aliyah policy.
*In 2026, contrary to conventional wisdom, Israel’s Jewish demographic momentum, since the 1990s, is due largely to the rise of fertility in the secular sector, while the ultra-orthodox sector (which has the highest fertility rate) has experienced a moderate decline in fertility rate (due to a gradual integration into the job market and academia), and the stabilization of modern orthodox’ fertility rate. Israeli Jewish women are unique in experiencing a direct correlation between a rise of fertility rate, on the one hand, and a rise in urbanization, education and level of income, on the other hand.
*In 2026, Israel is the only Western democracy endowed with a relatively high fertility rate (almost twice as high as in the OECD), that facilitates further economic growth, minimizing dependency on migrant labor. Moreover, Israel’s thriving demography provides for bolstered national security (larger classes of military recruits), economy, technology and a more confident foreign policy.
*In 2026, the Western establishment persists in reverberating official Palestinian demographic numbers without due-diligence (no auditing), ignoring a 110% artificial inflation, which consists of – as documented below – the inclusion of overseas residents, double-counting of Jerusalem Arabs and Israeli Arabs married to Judean and Samarian Arabs, ignoring the significant net-emigration, inflated births – and deflated deaths – data.
Westernization of Arab demography
*A dramatic Westernization of the Muslim fertility rate in Israel and in Judea and Samaria features a shift from 9 births per woman in the 1960s to less than 3 births in 2026 (2.51 Muslim births in pre-1967 Israel). It reflects the shift from a 70% rural Arab society in Judea and Samaria in 1967 to a 78% urban Arab society in 2026, in general, and the rising status of women (more educated than men), their wedding age (from 15 years old to 27 in pre-1967 Israel and 24 in Judea and Samaria), the substantial use of contraceptives (used by 70% of Arab women in Judea and Samaria), the shrinking of the reproductive period (from 16-55 to 24-45) and youth emigration.
*The median age of Judea and Samaria Arabs is 22 years old, compared to 18 years old in 2005.
*The Westernization of fertility rates has characterized all Muslim countries, other than the sub-Sahara region. According to the Seattle-based Macrotrends: Jordan (which tends to be similar to Judea and Samaria Arabs) – 2.5 births per woman, Iran – 2, Saudi Arabia – 2.1, Morocco – 2.3, Iraq – 3.4, Egypt – 3, Yemen – 3.3, United Arab Emirates – 1.3, etc.
*The number of Arab deaths in Judea and Samaria has been systematically under-reported (for political power of clans and financial reasons), as documented by various studies since the British Mandate. For example, the 2007 Palestinian population census included Arabs who were born in 1845….
*The demographic and policy-making establishment of Israel and the West refrains from auditing the official Palestinian data, and therefore it does not report the following well-documented Palestinian departure from a credible conduct of population census:
<500,000 overseas residents, who have been away for over a year, are included in the Palestinian population census, contrary to internationally accepted procedures, that stipulate only a de-facto count, deducting migrants away for over a year. It was 325,000, as stated by the Head - and website - of the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics in the aftermath of the first Palestinian census of 1997; increasing to 400,000 in 2005, as documented by the Palestinian Election Commission and Interior Ministry. The number grows daily due to overseas births.
<380,000 East Jerusalem Arabs, who possess Israeli ID cards, are doubly-counted by Israel (as Israeli Arabs) and the Palestinian Authority (as Palestinians). The number grows daily due to births.
